SOFR’s 99th percentile fell three basis points to 3.62% while the 75th–25th percentile core held at 3.58–3.52%, tightening overnight funding dispersion against an unchanged OECD aggregate debt backdrop of 112% of GDP. Updated at 25 August 2026. Scope This edition of Market Regime interprets cross-asset conditions through FinUties money-market and positioning feeds. It is explanatory research, not investment advice. Conclusions are conditional on the endpoints that returned usable observations this cycle; where feeds were empty, the narrative states the gap rather than inferring missing levels. Introduction This edition asks: why are positioning and rates turning together (or not), and into what regime — concentrated open interest or a broader rates read? Evidence answer (as-of 2026-05-19 UTC): SOFR’s 75th percentile held at 3.58% and its 99th percentile printed 3.62%—three basis points below the prior stored reading of 3.65%—while the 25th percentile stayed at 3.52% and the 1st percentile edged to 3.50% from 3.51%.. That is the read from prints already in this edition — not a forecast and not advice. SOFR’s 75th percentile held at 3.58% and its 99th percentile printed 3.62%—three basis points below the prior stored reading of 3.65%—while the 25th percentile stayed at 3.52% and the 1st percentile edged to 3.50% from 3.51%. FinUties planned five core New York Fed rate endpoints and two CFTC catalogue paths for this pull; only the secured overnight financing rate series delivered parseable observations. Companion feeds for the effective rate, overnight bank funding rate, tri-party general collateral rate, and broad general collateral rate returned no economic fields; CFTC metadata and product-hierarchy facts arrived without position-level observations. That asymmetry frames the central question: whether money-market tail compression and the extreme dealer-short positioning documented in prior Market Regime episodes still describe the same regime label, or whether leadership has narrowed to a rates-only signal. The deep dive below walks through what the SOFR distribution implies for funding dispersion, what prior CFTC readings still bind in memory, and where cross-domain confirmation remains incomplete. Try this query Reproduce the P0 pull for this edition: - REST: GET /api/v1/positioning/legacyfutures-facts?limit=25 - MCP query args: json {"domain":…
Pipeline-assisted research note with publish gates. Informational only — not investment advice.
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