FinUties · Country Screen · Turkey · SOFR holds 3.58% amid six empty feeds

Updated at 25 August 2026.

FinUties · Country Screen

Scope

This edition examines Turkey through the Country Screen lens: domestic macro conditions, external balances, and cross-border funding spillovers. It is interpretive research, not investment advice. Where planned feeds returned no usable observations, conclusions are explicitly conditional rather than inferred.

Introduction

This edition asks: why is Turkey's P0 macro turning this cycle, and into what activity, funding, or external-balance print?

Evidence answer (as-of 2026-05-19 UTC): The 75th percentile of the SOFR distribution prints at 3.58%, unchanged from the prior node pull (~2026-05-19); the 99th percentile sits at 3.62%, down from 3.65%.; Effective rates cluster between 3.50% and 3.55%—the 1st percentile eased from 3.51% to 3.50%, the primary effective-rate line from 3.55% to 3.53%, while the 25th percentile held at 3.52%—across reported transaction volume near $3.16 trillion.. That is the read from prints already in this edition — not a forecast and not advice.

The 75th percentile of the SOFR distribution prints at 3.58%, unchanged from the prior node pull (~2026-05-19); the 99th percentile sits at 3.62%, down from 3.65%. Effective rates cluster between 3.50% and 3.55%—the 1st percentile eased from 3.51% to 3.50%, the primary effective-rate line from 3.55% to 3.53%, while the 25th percentile held at 3.52%—across reported transaction volume near $3.16 trillion. Six companion endpoints (Treasury average rates, Treasury debt outstanding, OECD macro series, the tri-party general collateral rate, and the effective and overnight bank funding rates) returned no parseable economic fields. For Turkey, an economy with substantial external financing needs and sensitivity to dollar liquidity, that asymmetry defines this cycle: global secured funding is partially visible, but the fiscal curve, OECD country-level comparators, and adjacent money-market benchmarks that would normally triangulate spillovers are absent. This edition treats dollar funding as the binding observable cross-border channel, flags what remains opaque, and connects both to the longer-running Country Screen thread on Turkey.

Try this query

Reproduce the P0 pull for this edition:

• REST: GET /api/v1/economics/bls-series?limit=25
• MCP query args:

{"domain": "economics", "resource": "bls-series", "limit": 25}

Provenance: P0 domain economics. As-of this edition 2026-05-19 UTC. Informational only — not investment advice.

Deep dive

Dollar funding conditions

The New York Fed SOFR distribution describes secured overnight dollar borrowing across a large volume base—roughly 3,157–3,159 billion in reported activity. The interquartile band is tight: the 1st percentile at 3.50% (prior 3.51%), the 25th percentile at 3.52% (unchanged), and the 75th percentile at 3.58% (unchanged). The 99th percentile at 3.62% marks the upper tail, down from 3.65% previously—a modest compression of extreme prints rather than a wholesale regime shift.

Two effective-rate observations appear in the sample: 3.53% (prior 3.55%) and 3.55% (stable versus prior). That two-point spread within the same pull suggests snapshot variation rather than a broken market; the overall picture is a 3.50–3.62% corridor with the bulk of activity near the mid-3.50s. Mechanically, stable secured funding at these levels implies no acute reserve scarcity in dollar money markets—the kind of stress that typically widens EM sovereign spreads and pressures currencies like the lira through tighter cross-border credit and higher hedging costs.

Spillovers to Turkey's external balance

Turkey's macro vulnerability channel runs through external financing: rollover of foreign-currency debt, current-account funding, and the cost of dollar liquidity for corporates and banks. When SOFR tails compress and central tendencies hold near 3.53–3.55%, the transmission to Turkey is indirect but real—lower marginal funding stress in dollar markets can ease pressure on EM asset-swap spreads and reduce the premium embedded in FX hedges. Conversely, the absence of Treasury yield-curve or debt-outstanding readings this cycle removes a key cross-check: we cannot confirm whether term premia or issuance dynamics are reinforcing or offsetting the overnight funding picture.

The research questions for this edition asked where domestic activity, external balances, and funding conditions align. On available evidence, only the funding leg is observable. Without OECD series, Treasury benchmarks, or Turkey-specific trade and FX feeds in this pull, domestic activity and external-balance alignment must be treated as unresolved tensions—not as silent confirmation of stability.

Structural backdrop (slow indicators)

Three slow indicators provide world-level and OECD-aggregate context, not Turkey-specific fiscal snapshots.

• World extreme poverty rate: 8.6%, unchanged from the prior stored reading (World Bank, 2024 observation).
• World undernourishment prevalence: 9.1%, unchanged (FAO, 2024 observation).
• General government gross debt, OECD aggregate: 112% of GDP, unchanged (OECD fiscal aggregate, not a single-country figure).

The OECD aggregate debt stock at 112% of GDP frames a heavy advanced-economy fiscal backdrop against which global rate paths are set. For Turkey, the relevant comparison would require country-level fiscal data not present in this cycle; the aggregate figure signals persistent sovereign balance-sheet weight in the OECD bloc without specifying Turkish public-debt dynamics.

Continuity and build-up

This edition builds directly on the prior node Country Screen pull (~2026-05-19), which reported the same core pattern: SOFR clustering at 3.50–3.62% with multiple macro feeds empty. What persists is the tight SOFR corridor—the 75th percentile held at 3.58%, the 25th percentile at 3.52%, and one effective-rate line at 3.55%—alongside unchanged slow-indicator readings on world poverty (8.6%), undernourishment (9.1%), and OECD aggregate government debt (112% of GDP). What changed modestly is tail and centre drift: the 99th percentile eased from 3.65% to 3.62%, the 1st percentile from 3.51% to 3.50%, and the primary effective rate from 3.55% to 3.53%—directionally lower but within a band that prior editions already characterised as stable. What accumulates across pulls is a documentation of data sparsity: five core and two exploratory endpoints have now consecutive cycles without parseable fields, meaning the Country Screen's Turkey anchor increasingly relies on dollar funding alone until complementary feeds recover. The prior edition's note that conclusions were conditional on thin coverage remains binding; this cycle neither resolves nor worsens that constraint.

What to watch

• SOFR tail behaviour: Whether the 99th percentile stabilises near 3.62% or reverts toward 3.65%—a widening upper tail would signal renewed secured-funding friction relevant to EM external accounts.
• Effective-rate convergence: If the dual prints at 3.53% and 3.55% diverge further, monitor for intra-week volatility that could precede wider dollar funding stress.
• Feed recovery: Treasury average rates, Treasury debt outstanding, OECD macro series, TGCR, EFFR, and OBFR—all empty this cycle—are needed to triangulate term-structure and cross-rate spillovers to Turkey's FX and sovereign curve.
• OECD aggregate debt trajectory: The 112% of GDP OECD-wide figure is stable; any future revision would alter the global fiscal-rate backdrop against which EM borrowers price external debt.

Methodology and confidence discipline

FinUties treated HTTP-successful responses with empty or non-parseable economic fields as data gaps, not as zero values. Numeric claims trace only to observations explicitly returned by the SOFR feed and the three mapped slow indicators. Continuity comparisons use stored prior values from the node's last pull (~2026-05-19) and the most recent prior Country Screen edition. Where Turkey-specific domestic, trade, or FX series were unavailable, the analysis refrained from inferring alignment between growth, rates, and external balances. OECD debt is cited at aggregate scope throughout. Confidence is moderate on dollar funding conditions (rich SOFR sample, 20 rows) and low on country-level macro alignment pending feed recovery.

FinUties data sources

• /api/v1/macro/nyfed-sofr-series — Secured Overnight Financing Rate distribution and volume
• /api/v1/macro/nyfed-tgcr-series — Tri-party general collateral rate (no parseable fields this cycle)
• /api/v1/macro/oecd-series — OECD macro series catalogue (no parseable fields this cycle)
• /api/v1/macro/treasury-avg-rates-series — US Treasury average interest rates (no parseable fields this cycle)
• /api/v1/macro/treasury-debt-outstanding-series — US Treasury debt outstanding (no parseable fields this cycle)
• /api/v1/macro/nyfed-effr-series — Effective federal funds rate (no parseable fields this cycle)
• /api/v1/macro/nyfed-obfr-series — Overnight bank funding rate (no parseable fields this cycle)