Brent near $115 as Houthi claim on Ras Tanura and US post-midterm fears grip oil

Brent rose about 1.3% on 28 October after a Houthi claim of a missile hit on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. Traders are also weighing the possibility of US action against Iran after the 3 November midterms.

What happened

Oil rose on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, after the Houthis said they had struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile on Tuesday. Brent and WTI gained about 1.3% [1]. One report put Brent up 1.4% at $115.47 a barrel [2], and another had Brent at $115.30 and WTI at $101.90 [3]. The refinery has a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day [4]. Saudi officials had not confirmed major damage. Intercepts and debris impacts were reported in Riyadh [4].

The rise followed a drop of nearly $2 on Tuesday, when diplomacy hopes weighed on prices. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials were travelling to Tehran, and traders were taking profits after multi-month highs [5][4]. A CNN report that US forces could strike Iran within 96 hours of a Trump order partly offset that diplomatic bid [5]. On Wednesday, a Wall Street Journal report added to the upward pressure. It said Washington had asked Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign after the 3 November midterms. No final decision by President Trump has been reported [6][4]. An API crude inventory draw of about 2.03 million barrels also supported prices [4].

Iran warned on Wednesday that any new Israeli-led attack would cause devastating fallout for international markets. Israeli votes were still being counted with no clear winner [6]. Preliminary exit polls pointed to a Knesset stalemate without 61 seats, which clouds Israel's Iran policy outlook [1]. Trump said the war would end on his terms, with Iran blocked from nuclear weapons [1].

Shipping stress is rising. Over 30 maritime incidents were recorded in October, against 14 in September, and a crude tanker was struck in Iraq's exclusive economic zone [7]. Gulf freight is near $33 a barrel, and demurrage is at $1,000,000 a day [7]. UBS raised its end-2026 Brent forecast to $110 from $100, its second increase this month. It cited Gulf loadings still below prewar levels and falling global inventories after strategic releases [3]. FinUties' news monitor logged 41 reports on this story from 8 outlets in recent days, and 108 earlier related reports going back to 5 December 2025.

How we got here

On 23 February, a commentator warned that markets were complacent about a likely second phase of the Israel-Iran conflict. He pointed to the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of exported oil and LNG [8]. By 2 March, US and Israeli strikes on Iran had pushed Brent to a 52-week high near $79.40. Three tankers had been hit over the weekend [9]. Iran has blockaded the strait since the war erupted in February [6].

By 14 July, Trump had threatened a 20% fee on Hormuz cargo. Gulf producers were looking for bypass routes, including Saudi Arabia's diversion of roughly 4 million barrels per day via the East-West Petroline to Yanbu [10]. Analysts noted that Yanbu exports must pass the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, which is vulnerable to Houthi attacks [10]. On 27 July, crude had moved through US$100 per barrel. The Houthis had announced a maritime blockade on Saudi ports and Bab el-Mandeb-linked traffic, and the Yanbu route was cut [11].

On 5 August, Iran announced a shipping route agreement with Oman. It said US blockades and threats still prevented safe passage [12]. By 19 August, Hormuz tanker flows had collapsed to roughly 2 million barrels daily, against pre-war levels near 18 million. Traders were repricing toward a longer energy crisis [13]. On 22 September, a WSJ report said Trump had proposed a $5 billion fund, seeking Gulf co-funding toward about $10 billion. It would rebuild damaged energy infrastructure and develop export routes that bypass Hormuz [14]. On 23 September, the US and Iran held their first shuttle talks in months at the UN, communicating only through mediators. Neither side reported a change in positions, and Brent was just below $100 [15].

October brought a sharper deterioration. By 14 October Brent was above $106. Commercial oil stocks were approaching minimum operational levels after an estimated net draw of roughly two billion barrels since the war began [16]. By 17 October, there had been at least twelve confirmed vessel incidents in the week to 16 October. Oil flows through Hormuz were about 11.6 million bpd, against a 17.1 million pre-war baseline, and Brent reached $110 [17]. Compared with just below $100 in late September, Brent is now about $115, and the October incident count is more than double September's [7][15].

Source: IMF Primary Commodity Prices (https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices). Data as of Sep 2026. Markers: 1 = 2 Mar 2026, Oil soars amid Strait of Hormuz shipping fears as Iran war drives pri….

Why it matters for markets

The main channel is physical supply. If attacks on Saudi energy assets or Gulf shipping continue, crude could stay elevated, because inventories are already drawn down and Gulf loadings remain below prewar levels [3][16]. Earlier in October, diplomatic statements no longer suppressed prices because physical tightness dominated [16]. That could help explain why Tuesday's decline was reversed so quickly.

Freight and refined products are another channel. Freight at $30–40 per barrel for VLCCs to China, against a historical $1–3, would add to delivered costs [3]. Ukrainian refinery strikes have pushed Russia to import refined products, which contributes to elevated global gasoline prices [18]. UBS data show Russian crude exports only about 10% below pre-war levels, with 61% leaving on a shadow fleet [18]. Russian flows have therefore not offset the Gulf disruption.

Rates are a possible channel, though no link is established. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.0% on 26 October, against 5.24% on 28 September. The 2-year yield was 4.68%, against 4.92% [19][20]. It is not known whether oil drove those moves.

A diplomatic breakthrough could ease the risk premium. Qatar is presenting Iran with a draft deal, and Qatar and Pakistan are mediating [7][3]. The timing and content of any agreement are not yet known.

What to watch

• 3 November midterms. The WSJ-reported planning for a short, intense US campaign is tied to the period after the vote. It is not yet known whether Trump will order action [6][4].
• OPEC+ on 1 November. Markets await the group's December output decisions [2].
• Mediation. Watch for Iran's response to Qatar's draft deal and the outcome of the Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani visits to Tehran [5][3].
• Ras Tanura. Saudi confirmation or denial of damage will matter for how far the supply fears persist [4].
• Israel's election. A Knesset stalemate could shape Israel's Iran policy [1].
• Shipping data. Watch whether October's count of more than 30 incidents is exceeded, and whether freight and demurrage rates ease from current levels [7].
• IEA outlook. The IEA has warned that war-driven supply disruption will extend into next year [5].

Sources

1. US Top News and Analysis: Oil prices rise as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian refinery raise supply worries, 28 Oct 2026
2. World News: Latest International News & Updates | The Hindu: Oil rises over 1% after Saudi Arabian refinery attack reignites supply risk, 28 Oct 2026
3. Oilprice.com: UBS Sees $110 Brent by Year-End as Gulf Flows Stay Below Prewar Levels, 28 Oct 2026
4. Oilprice.com: Oil Prices Climb as Houthi Attacks Reignite Saudi Supply Fears, 28 Oct 2026
5. Oilprice.com: Oil Prices Drop Despite Threat of New U.S. Strikes on Iran, 27 Oct 2026
6. World News: Latest International News & Updates | The Hindu: Iran warns of 'devastating' economic fallout from any new Israeli attack, 28 Oct 2026
7. Oilprice.com: Oil Markets Brace for a New Iran Escalation After U.S. Midterms, 27 Oct 2026
8. Oilprice.com: Have Markets Mispriced the Danger of an Iran Escalation?, 23 Feb 2026
9. US Top News and Analysis: Oil soars amid Strait of Hormuz shipping fears as Iran war drives prices to nearly $80, 02 Mar 2026
10. US Top News and Analysis: Is Hormuz open? Trump's toll threat intensifies rush to bypass the Strait altogether, 14 Jul 2026
11. Oilprice.com: The U.S. Is Walking Into Iran’s Escalation Trap, 27 Jul 2026
12. BBC News: Iran says it has agreed Strait of Hormuz shipping route with Oman, 05 Aug 2026
13. Oilprice.com: Hope Fades, Traders Brace for Extended Oil, LNG Squeeze, 19 Aug 2026
14. Oilprice.com: Trump Proposes $5 Billion Fund to Rebuild Gulf Energy Infrastructure, 22 Sep 2026
15. World News Today: International News Headlines: Hope for progress after U.S., Iran hold first shuttle talks in months, 23 Sep 2026
16. Oilprice.com: Oil Market Tightens as Tanker Attacks and Inventory Draws Mount, 14 Oct 2026
17. Al Jazeera: US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels, 17 Oct 2026
18. Oilprice.com: UBS Data Shows Russian Oil Exports Only 10% Below Pre-War Levels, 28 Oct 2026
19. Federal Reserve H.15: US 2-year Treasury yield (H.15), 26 Oct 2026
20. Federal Reserve H.15: US 10-year Treasury yield (H.15), 26 Oct 2026

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Provenance

• Study: event-desk-20261028-brent-near-115-as-houthi-claim-on-ras-tanura-and-us-post-mid (7cb7e415-faeb-4627-bbe0-e7415537d337)
• Author: FinUties Research
• Approved by: FinUties Research at 2026-10-28T22:14:37.462058Z
• Kind: event brief (news sources, not a FinUties dataset study)
• Cited sources: 20 from 6 outlets, all licensed for public use

• Earlier related events cited from 2026-02-23

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